8.3 Global projections

When projecting future sea-level rise, we need to recognise that local trends related to decadal variability will be superimposed on the slowly increasing global-mean sea level. At this stage there is no agreed pattern for the longer-term regional distribution of projected sea-level rise. There are, however, several features that are common to most model projections – for example a maximum sea-level rise in the Arctic Ocean and a minimum rise in the Southern Ocean south of the Antarctic Circumpolat current.

Figure 8 The multi-model mean of the departure of the projected regional sea-level rise from the global-averaged (SRES A1B) projections for 2030 and 2970 (source: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel)