The direct impact of pandemics on health can be catastrophic, in terms of mortality and morbidity; for example, the HIV/AIDS pandemic has killed more than 35 million people since 1981.
Pandemics may lead health systems to collapse and indirect impacts on health can further increase morbidity and mortality rates. Drivers of indirect impact on health include diversion or depletion of resources used to provide routine care and decreased access to routine care, resulting in further deaths. Pandemics constitute a catastrophe not only in terms of public health but also economic and social wellbeing. The health measures implemented to contain the pandemic, including a complete lockdown, suspending work-related activities, travel and trade, lead to a global crisis with long term repercussions.
A pandemic also has a significant psychological impact because it arouses fear and feelings of panic and uncertainty, as well as causing people who catch the disease or come from the contaminated zones to be stigmatized.
Pandemics can cause acute, but also longer-term damage to economic growth. Negative economic growth shocks are directly driven by labor force reductions caused by sickness and mortality, and indirectly by fear-induced behavioral changes. Fear manifests through multiple behavioral changes. The reduction in demand caused by aversive behavior (such as the avoidance of travel, restaurants, and public spaces, as well as workplace absenteeism) exceeds the economic impact of direct morbidity and mortality-associated absenteeism.
During a severe pandemic, all sectors of the economy—agriculture, manufacturing, services—face disruption, potentially leading to shortages, rapid price increases for staple goods, and economic stress for private firms and governments.
Evidence suggests that epidemics and pandemics can have significant social and political consequences, creating clashes between states and citizens, eroding state capacity, driving population displacement, and heightening social tension and discrimination, particularly in fragile states with legacies of violence and weak institutions.
Large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease have direct and consequential social impact. For example, widespread public panic during disease outbreaks can lead to rapid population migration. Finally, outbreaks of infectious disease can cause already vulnerable social groups, such as ethnic minority populations, to be stigmatized and blamed for the disease and its consequences.
